Well it doesn't get much more depressing than this. Brewers got swept by the Pirates putting us behind the Cards by 9 and a half games now. Who by the way those Cardinals just picked up a Hall of Fame arm in Jon Smoltz. We have now dropped to four games below .500 and I have officially lost all hope for this season. Maybe it doesn't help that I'm listening to "Hurt" by Johnny Cash and the only two distractions I've had in the sports world in the past week have been Vick not signing with the Packers and Brett Favre signing with the Packers. I have less hatred towards Ted Thompson now though since the news has broken that McNabb has taken Vick under his wing. It seems as though the Eagles were just so determined to pick up Vick that T squared had no chance, at least that's what I'm telling myself. As for Favre, we all saw it coming and nobody can very surprised at all. The only thing I hope for more than a Packers' Superbowl victory this year is for the Vikings to pull a 2009 Detroit Lions this year.
Can you tell I'm putting off talking about the Brewers? It feels like the lowest point all season to me and for the first time I have zero hope of us making the playoffs. We're just way too far out of any the races and we still don't have any starting pitching to help us make a tremendous run. As I mentioned above, the already stocked Cardinals added Smoltz to apparently bolster their bullpen or make starts, I have no clue. All I know is if they can get anything out of them it's going to help them a lot. The self-proclaimed "best baseball fans" who live in St. Louis have a lot to look forward to this October it seems.
The wildcard which the Brewers enjoyed last year is out of reach as well. We're eight and a half games behind the leading Rockies for that spot and an additional four teams are above us as well. It is going to take a lot of solo Prince Fielder home runs for us to surmount a comeback that great. I say solo because bug-eyed Braun gets picked off every third time he's on the basepaths. How has noone in the dugout told him to just stand right on the bag from now on while Prince is hitting? I feel bad for Prince. He is a much better player than what he is getting right now from the rest of the team. I don't expect us to trade him next year unless we throw in the towel extremely soon. He will however be traded before his contract runs out because I would be extremely surprised if Attanasio if willing to pay him what he wants and deserves. Assuming that to be the case we need to get some quality value for him from another team.
There was one bright spot over the last few days. The Mariners picked up Bill Hall because of their own injuries at third in exchange for a minor leauge pitcher. It's funny to see how much the Mariners have turned into the Brewers of a couple years ago because of Zduriencik being the new GM there. Of course there's a downside to this deal and that's that the Crew agreed to pay nearly the rest of Hall's $10.5 million salary that is still owed to him.
So that's where the Brewers stand, rebuilding once again. Hopefully the rest of the season will be entertaining to at least watch how some of those younger faces perform. If not it's less than four weeks away from football season to distract me from my Brewers blues.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Monday, August 17, 2009
Hnarrative
After discussing with several Brewer fan’s over the past about the prospects of the rest of the season the overwhelming response seems to be that it’s over. Those who still do have hope of a possible playoff run are very reserved on the actuality of that glorious event. You can definitely stick me in that latter camp, and I’m proud to be there. Of course most sports fans have a very short-term memory and after watching them drop two of three to the Padres (again), it was very easy to throw The Crew under the bus. Especially when in the one game you win you score 12 runs and still almost give it up because of poor pitching. The important thing though is that it goes down as a win and helped to propel us to the first three game winning streak since the middle of June.
It is largely due in part to these mighty struggles over the last several weeks that I have so much hope. I truly believe that we are a better team than we have shown over that time. The fact that we are still within striking distance of the Cardinals makes me so happy. We have a lot of games left against them, as well as the Cubs, and it would be very easy for us to close the gap during September. A friend of mine was expressing her hope that we would sweep the Cards for the rest of our season series against them. Although I find that extremely improbable and nearly impossible, it definitely is true that we can make some hay against them. Of course, it was my expectation we were going to be winning a lot of games and series since the All-Star break to where we stand today and I’ve been terribly wrong, but that optimism cannot leave me.
It is that same optimism that has led me over the last couple weeks to grow so excited about the changes our bullpen has experienced. I think Weathers is a tremendous set-up man and Vargas put together some great innings for us. After watching Weathers blow the game on Sunday, losing the chance for a series sweep, most would lose faith, but not me. This is due part to my optimism still, but more so my stubbornness that I was right about Weathers being a great set-up man. I don’t blame Weathers for giving up that two run homer. He pitched a good at-bat against Pence, and Pence hit a pitchers pitch for a home run. It was an impressive show by Hunter, and not much Weathers could have done about it. I was reading another blog in which the author suggested we should have given Pence a free pass to first and pitched to Pudge instead. That type of strategy is so stupid and will not work for you in most situations since you’re putting the go ahead run on first (and Pence has good speed to). I think that author also greatly underestimates Pudge, who is still a rather good hitter with decent power.
At any rate we’re eight games back and below .500. If the Brewers struggle any longer to win series and in all honesty begin to sweep some teams I’m afraid I’ll have the jump off the playoff prospective bandwagon. That has not happened so far though, so let’s just go out and continue our dominance over the Pirates. Oh, and screw you Thompson, I hope you enjoy watching the Eagles in the Superbowl this year, jackass.
It is largely due in part to these mighty struggles over the last several weeks that I have so much hope. I truly believe that we are a better team than we have shown over that time. The fact that we are still within striking distance of the Cardinals makes me so happy. We have a lot of games left against them, as well as the Cubs, and it would be very easy for us to close the gap during September. A friend of mine was expressing her hope that we would sweep the Cards for the rest of our season series against them. Although I find that extremely improbable and nearly impossible, it definitely is true that we can make some hay against them. Of course, it was my expectation we were going to be winning a lot of games and series since the All-Star break to where we stand today and I’ve been terribly wrong, but that optimism cannot leave me.
It is that same optimism that has led me over the last couple weeks to grow so excited about the changes our bullpen has experienced. I think Weathers is a tremendous set-up man and Vargas put together some great innings for us. After watching Weathers blow the game on Sunday, losing the chance for a series sweep, most would lose faith, but not me. This is due part to my optimism still, but more so my stubbornness that I was right about Weathers being a great set-up man. I don’t blame Weathers for giving up that two run homer. He pitched a good at-bat against Pence, and Pence hit a pitchers pitch for a home run. It was an impressive show by Hunter, and not much Weathers could have done about it. I was reading another blog in which the author suggested we should have given Pence a free pass to first and pitched to Pudge instead. That type of strategy is so stupid and will not work for you in most situations since you’re putting the go ahead run on first (and Pence has good speed to). I think that author also greatly underestimates Pudge, who is still a rather good hitter with decent power.
At any rate we’re eight games back and below .500. If the Brewers struggle any longer to win series and in all honesty begin to sweep some teams I’m afraid I’ll have the jump off the playoff prospective bandwagon. That has not happened so far though, so let’s just go out and continue our dominance over the Pirates. Oh, and screw you Thompson, I hope you enjoy watching the Eagles in the Superbowl this year, jackass.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
An Early Edition of Friday's Hnarrative
When I woke up Wednesday morning and heard on the radio about the biggest one day shakeup the entire year I was ecstatic. Although the Brewers may be a far ways from being mathematically out of the playoffs the realistic window is closing fast. As far as the major league roster is concerned, Bill Hall was moved to assignment and Hardy was sent down to AAA. I’m looking forward to checking out the new faces we’ve moved up in Escobar, Iribarren, and Bourgeois. Including another probable major league stint from Gamel in the closing months of the 2009 season we will get a great chance to see the future of the Brewers. This excitement is bittersweet however knowing that even though Melvin claims this not a “white flag,” it’s about as close as you can get. Either way it should generate excitement and more profit for the rest of the season, which I’ll continue to patiently wait to be applied to our player payroll. The final part of the Wednesday shakeup was the firing of the Brewers pitching coach, Billy Castro. If you would like to know my feelings on this move I suggest reading my Wednesday Hnarration. Instead I’d like to focus on the roster moves that took place.
Let’s start with Bill Hall. If any team is desperate enough to pick up his large contract what a plus. It’s rather clear that Hall had worn out his welcome in Milwaukee over the past two years or so. Over that time Hall’s role has regressed from a clutch hitter and a mainstay in the starting lineup to a lackluster defensive replacement. Although our former Mother’s Day savior did have success clutch hitting this year, it felt like he couldn’t get a hit in the first 6 innings of a ball game. When you get excited about a walk from a player so you don’t have to witness him swing a bat that player has got to be awful. It’s fairly clear that even though results are supposed to drive whether or not you should stay on the major league roster for the Brewers (just look at Jorge Julio and Brad Nelson); Melvin wanted to give him a real good chance to pull it around to save face on signing Billy to such a bloated contract. Even if he were to stay with the club the rest of the year he would just waste away on our bench like he has all year long. I would much rather get a chance to see the aforementioned younger faces in pinch hitting roles and spot starts. I do have to give props to The Doorman (you can see him behind the visiting dugouts the majority of Miller Park games) for supporting Hall by wearing his jersey to last night game. My respect for The Doorman grew once again with that move.
Now onto the case of the tough luck of JJ Hardy. He has had a heck of a grind this season. If you look back it would be tough to find at-bats where Hardy would give away an out. He had a ton of hard hit balls which went right an outfielder or to the left side of the infield. In addition to that his defense is still above par and is blessed with one of the strongest arms on the team. After watching him this year I have no reason to believe he will not be a major leaguer for a long time to come still. Whether or not the majority of those years are spent in a Brewers uniform remains to be seen and is dependent on a lot of variables. As far as the short term is considered, we can only hope JJ will be able to loosen up, get hot at the plate, and return to the Brewers soon to provide us with some offense he has been unable to produce so far this season. That will only matter if the Brewers are still in the playoff race by the time his run at Nashville over, which is definitely not a known fact. Either way it will be interesting to see what our infield will look like next year assuming Gamel and Escobar perform up to their expectations in addition to Hardy, the return of Weeks, McGeehee, and very possibly Bill Hall.
That’s all I got for you today. You’re only required to read on if you’re Ted Thompson. I would like repeat my convictions I voiced on Wednesday about Vick. He would provide a wonderful backup to Rodgers would get hurt and just imagine all of options you could have on offense with both Vick and Rodgers on the field at the same time. If you want to know how powerful we would be just consider if you were facing that as a defense and how difficult it would be to make a game plan for that. I know he’s got baggage, but I think it is over exaggerated from what it actually will be considering how hard Vick seems to be trying to rectify his atrocious acts. Thanks Ted.
Let’s start with Bill Hall. If any team is desperate enough to pick up his large contract what a plus. It’s rather clear that Hall had worn out his welcome in Milwaukee over the past two years or so. Over that time Hall’s role has regressed from a clutch hitter and a mainstay in the starting lineup to a lackluster defensive replacement. Although our former Mother’s Day savior did have success clutch hitting this year, it felt like he couldn’t get a hit in the first 6 innings of a ball game. When you get excited about a walk from a player so you don’t have to witness him swing a bat that player has got to be awful. It’s fairly clear that even though results are supposed to drive whether or not you should stay on the major league roster for the Brewers (just look at Jorge Julio and Brad Nelson); Melvin wanted to give him a real good chance to pull it around to save face on signing Billy to such a bloated contract. Even if he were to stay with the club the rest of the year he would just waste away on our bench like he has all year long. I would much rather get a chance to see the aforementioned younger faces in pinch hitting roles and spot starts. I do have to give props to The Doorman (you can see him behind the visiting dugouts the majority of Miller Park games) for supporting Hall by wearing his jersey to last night game. My respect for The Doorman grew once again with that move.
Now onto the case of the tough luck of JJ Hardy. He has had a heck of a grind this season. If you look back it would be tough to find at-bats where Hardy would give away an out. He had a ton of hard hit balls which went right an outfielder or to the left side of the infield. In addition to that his defense is still above par and is blessed with one of the strongest arms on the team. After watching him this year I have no reason to believe he will not be a major leaguer for a long time to come still. Whether or not the majority of those years are spent in a Brewers uniform remains to be seen and is dependent on a lot of variables. As far as the short term is considered, we can only hope JJ will be able to loosen up, get hot at the plate, and return to the Brewers soon to provide us with some offense he has been unable to produce so far this season. That will only matter if the Brewers are still in the playoff race by the time his run at Nashville over, which is definitely not a known fact. Either way it will be interesting to see what our infield will look like next year assuming Gamel and Escobar perform up to their expectations in addition to Hardy, the return of Weeks, McGeehee, and very possibly Bill Hall.
That’s all I got for you today. You’re only required to read on if you’re Ted Thompson. I would like repeat my convictions I voiced on Wednesday about Vick. He would provide a wonderful backup to Rodgers would get hurt and just imagine all of options you could have on offense with both Vick and Rodgers on the field at the same time. If you want to know how powerful we would be just consider if you were facing that as a defense and how difficult it would be to make a game plan for that. I know he’s got baggage, but I think it is over exaggerated from what it actually will be considering how hard Vick seems to be trying to rectify his atrocious acts. Thanks Ted.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Padres v. Brewers Game 2 Lineups
Here are the lineups for tonight's game. The infield is as predicted in my earlier post as Escobar is not in from Nashville yet.
Brewers
2B Felipe Lopez
SS Craig Counsell
LF Ryan Braun
1B Prince Fielder
CF Mike Cameron
3B Casey McGehee
RF Frank Catalanotto
C Jason Kendall
RHP Carlos Villanueva
Padres
CF Tony Gwynn Jr.
2B David Eckstein
1B Adrian Gonzalez
LF Chase Headley
RF Will Venable
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
C Henry Blanco
SS Everth Cabrera
RHP Kevin Correia
Padres v. Brewers Game 2
Well. It certainly has been quite a day for the Brewers and the Brewers fans. As the posts below will tell you, the Brewers have sent JJ Hardy to the minors, DFA Bill Hall and fired pitching coach Bill Castro and brought up Alcides Escobar (SS) and Jason Bourgeois (OF). But you already knew that.
The lineups have not been posted yet, but Ken Macha said in the press conference today that Escobar will not play today. I'm going to speculate that Lopez will be at 2B, Counsell at SS and McGehee at 3B today, unless Macha for some reason puts in Iribarren.
Funny enough, all those roster moves today are really irrelevant (besides the firing of Castro) because its the Brewer's pitching staff that needs help. We have a matchup of Carlos Villanueva (2-9 ERA - 6.05) vs. Kevin Correia (7-9 ERA - 4.51).
I don't want want to link anyone else's stories because its basically already been done by Nate today and I've had enough of reading all the negativity and such.
Lineups should be out soon and hopefully I get them up before the game starts.
The lineups have not been posted yet, but Ken Macha said in the press conference today that Escobar will not play today. I'm going to speculate that Lopez will be at 2B, Counsell at SS and McGehee at 3B today, unless Macha for some reason puts in Iribarren.
Funny enough, all those roster moves today are really irrelevant (besides the firing of Castro) because its the Brewer's pitching staff that needs help. We have a matchup of Carlos Villanueva (2-9 ERA - 6.05) vs. Kevin Correia (7-9 ERA - 4.51).
I don't want want to link anyone else's stories because its basically already been done by Nate today and I've had enough of reading all the negativity and such.
Lineups should be out soon and hopefully I get them up before the game starts.
Casey Goes to Bat for Cerebal Palsy
On a day filled with such grim happenings for the Milwaukee Brewers, it's nice to be able to step back a little and see some good.
The Brewers are currently offering a promotional ticket deal in which the proceeds will go to benefiting the fight against cerebal palsy.
Check out the promotion HERE.
The Brewers are currently offering a promotional ticket deal in which the proceeds will go to benefiting the fight against cerebal palsy.
Check out the promotion HERE.
Melvin Says this Mornings Moves aren't a "White Flag"
Tom Haudricourt spoke to Doug Melvin today about the drastic moves the Crew made this morning.
Here are some hightlights.
Read the entire article HERE.
"We're still focused on winning games," said Melvin. "We're two games below .500 and 6 1/2 games back (in the NL Central). We're not gving up."
"Last night's game was a stinker," said Melvin. "That put me over the edge, I guess."
"Bill Castro's been so good to the organization; that was a tough one," said Melvin. "Billy was familiar with our pitchers so we gave him the chance to be pitching coach but our staff just wasn't performing to the level we thought it should."
"All of these moves are performace bases. I look at myself and maybe I waited too long on some of these. I'm maybe more patient than most people. I try to ride these things out. When you don't see progress, you've got to make moves."
"I talked to J.J.," said Melvin. "I told him he needs to go to Triple-A, relax and have some fun. Mentally, take a breather. That's what Triple-A is for. Maybe he can find something mechanical with his swing."
"I've had a couple of calls about Billy. We're talking with some teams about him. Maybe we can find a team interested in him as an infielder (Hall has been playing RF in Corey Hart's absence). He's not getting playing time in the infield here because of the depth we have there."
"We're all big boys. We understand we're evaluated on performance. Nothing is in the making. Ken is our manager."
Here are some hightlights.
Read the entire article HERE.
"We're still focused on winning games," said Melvin. "We're two games below .500 and 6 1/2 games back (in the NL Central). We're not gving up."
"Last night's game was a stinker," said Melvin. "That put me over the edge, I guess."
"Bill Castro's been so good to the organization; that was a tough one," said Melvin. "Billy was familiar with our pitchers so we gave him the chance to be pitching coach but our staff just wasn't performing to the level we thought it should."
"All of these moves are performace bases. I look at myself and maybe I waited too long on some of these. I'm maybe more patient than most people. I try to ride these things out. When you don't see progress, you've got to make moves."
"I talked to J.J.," said Melvin. "I told him he needs to go to Triple-A, relax and have some fun. Mentally, take a breather. That's what Triple-A is for. Maybe he can find something mechanical with his swing."
"I've had a couple of calls about Billy. We're talking with some teams about him. Maybe we can find a team interested in him as an infielder (Hall has been playing RF in Corey Hart's absence). He's not getting playing time in the infield here because of the depth we have there."
"We're all big boys. We understand we're evaluated on performance. Nothing is in the making. Ken is our manager."
Heads Are Rollings
Tom Haudricourt has dubbed today Black Wednesday. The Brewers have fired their pitching coach and optioned JJ Hardy down to triple AAA.
Check out Anthony Witrado's article HERE.
Check out Tom Haudricourt's article HERE.
Bill Hall Designated for Assignment.
Castro Fired, Hardy Sent Down.
Seems as though today's HNarrative was prophetic.
Check out Anthony Witrado's article HERE.
Check out Tom Haudricourt's article HERE.
Bill Hall Designated for Assignment.
Castro Fired, Hardy Sent Down.
Seems as though today's HNarrative was prophetic.
Wednesday's HNarrative
The HNarrative
By: Sam Hnilicka
Could someone please explain to me why Billy Castro still has a job? I have absolutely nothing against the man Billy Castro, but it is fairly clear that he is not cut out to be a major league pitching coach, especially with as fragile of a staff that the Brewers boast. Our team ERA is a staggering 4.81, which when you consider the NL average ERA to be 4.23, it is clear the Brewers pitching staff has struggled this year, and it definitely has driven up the numbers in our loss column. It is even more concerning when you notice the Brewers team ERA of 4.81 is second to last only to the *gulp* Nationals.
Now of course you can’t put all the blame on Billy Castro. In fact I’m fairly convinced our pitching staff would be in the same shambles no matter who was their pitching coach. But the fact remains that there needs to be some sort of shakeup in order to liven up this staff. When Castro was initially hired I thought that he would be a serviceable replacement for a year or two, and maybe longer if he turned out to be good. He didn’t turn out to be good. Now it’s especially tough to sit here and criticize a man who has been with the Brewers since he was three years old, but just because a man has worked on a GM assembly line for 25 years does that mean he should be promoted to CFO? And if GM’s finances go into the can shouldn’t that CFO be fired?
And what the hell happened to Billy’s familiarity with our existing pitching staff? Gallardo has struggled during portions of the year and most would say he has underperformed his (probably unfairly) high expectations. Parra of course had a terrible couple months before getting rejuvenated down in Nashville, where Billy Castro was far, far away from. Suppan and Bush both performed relatively well in the first half, but have both been hit by the injury bug in recent weeks. And the one guy who Castro did not have that familiarity with, Looper, has done extremely well. You could make the same argument for our bullpen where imports like Coffey and Hoffman have excelled, but Villanueva and McClung have both regressed. It’s clear that for whatever reason most hurlers whom Billy had had previous contact with have floundered, while established veterans have done well.
Just like Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting the Brewers have to leave their old running mates behind the dust and move onto a better life. Bill may not be as obnoxious as Ben Affleck, but he certainly holds us back in the same way. As I said at the beginning I like BC as a man but I’m sure that the holy trinity (Doug Melvin, Mark Attanasio, and the wily Ken Macha) would agree that he is not the long term answer for the Brewers pitching coach and they would be wise to get rid of him before the year is over.
Finally I’d like to correct something in my last blog. The brewers only won one series in the stretch I referenced (July 2nd through August 10th). Maybe I did screwed up because I didn’t want to type the following sentence, but here it goes. The Brewers did not win any series in the month of July. Ok, now that I got that bandaid ripped off I’d also like to thank espn.com and baseball-reference.com for providing tons of stats for me to sift through. Before I go, if Ted Thompson is reading this please sign Michael Vick so that our offense would be unstoppable next year? Thanks, and remember, I sided with you over Favre Ted, so you owe me.
By: Sam Hnilicka
Could someone please explain to me why Billy Castro still has a job? I have absolutely nothing against the man Billy Castro, but it is fairly clear that he is not cut out to be a major league pitching coach, especially with as fragile of a staff that the Brewers boast. Our team ERA is a staggering 4.81, which when you consider the NL average ERA to be 4.23, it is clear the Brewers pitching staff has struggled this year, and it definitely has driven up the numbers in our loss column. It is even more concerning when you notice the Brewers team ERA of 4.81 is second to last only to the *gulp* Nationals.
Now of course you can’t put all the blame on Billy Castro. In fact I’m fairly convinced our pitching staff would be in the same shambles no matter who was their pitching coach. But the fact remains that there needs to be some sort of shakeup in order to liven up this staff. When Castro was initially hired I thought that he would be a serviceable replacement for a year or two, and maybe longer if he turned out to be good. He didn’t turn out to be good. Now it’s especially tough to sit here and criticize a man who has been with the Brewers since he was three years old, but just because a man has worked on a GM assembly line for 25 years does that mean he should be promoted to CFO? And if GM’s finances go into the can shouldn’t that CFO be fired?
And what the hell happened to Billy’s familiarity with our existing pitching staff? Gallardo has struggled during portions of the year and most would say he has underperformed his (probably unfairly) high expectations. Parra of course had a terrible couple months before getting rejuvenated down in Nashville, where Billy Castro was far, far away from. Suppan and Bush both performed relatively well in the first half, but have both been hit by the injury bug in recent weeks. And the one guy who Castro did not have that familiarity with, Looper, has done extremely well. You could make the same argument for our bullpen where imports like Coffey and Hoffman have excelled, but Villanueva and McClung have both regressed. It’s clear that for whatever reason most hurlers whom Billy had had previous contact with have floundered, while established veterans have done well.
Just like Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting the Brewers have to leave their old running mates behind the dust and move onto a better life. Bill may not be as obnoxious as Ben Affleck, but he certainly holds us back in the same way. As I said at the beginning I like BC as a man but I’m sure that the holy trinity (Doug Melvin, Mark Attanasio, and the wily Ken Macha) would agree that he is not the long term answer for the Brewers pitching coach and they would be wise to get rid of him before the year is over.
Finally I’d like to correct something in my last blog. The brewers only won one series in the stretch I referenced (July 2nd through August 10th). Maybe I did screwed up because I didn’t want to type the following sentence, but here it goes. The Brewers did not win any series in the month of July. Ok, now that I got that bandaid ripped off I’d also like to thank espn.com and baseball-reference.com for providing tons of stats for me to sift through. Before I go, if Ted Thompson is reading this please sign Michael Vick so that our offense would be unstoppable next year? Thanks, and remember, I sided with you over Favre Ted, so you owe me.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Small Ball is for Suckers
In the 9th inning of Sunday afternoon's game against the Astros, the Brewers (down 2-0) had runners on first and second with 0 outs and Felipe Lopez at the plate. As the post-game lamentations expressed by my esteemed colleagues indicated, some felt that a sacrifice bunt was in order. With runners on 2nd a 3rd and 1 out, a simple single would tie the game--so the logic goes. But is the logic sound? According to the experts at Baseball Prospectus (as well as several other sabrematricians who have studied the numbers at length), the answer is a resounding "no." The following run expectancy matrix from 2009 illustrates the their reasoning:
The data shows that run expectancy is higher when there are runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs (1.501) compared to runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (1.426). While the spread fluctuates from year to year, the difference is usually between a half run and a full run (see more here).
Now consider the fact that a sacrifice bunt is not always successful. As this insightful and exhaustive article from the Hardball Times notes, sacrifice bunts fail around 25% of the time (yes, the fail rate is lower when pitchers are taken out of the equation, but the article applies the necessary adjustments and reaches the same conclusion).
As the preceding research (in addition to recent works outlining the extent of the importance of On-base Percentage) demonstrates, voluntarily giving up one your 27 outs is NOT an advisable strategy.
As frustrating as it is see the Brewers squander opportunities with runners on base, giving up outs to move runners over (i.e. small ball) will only decrease the team's run expectancy and exacerbate the problem.
Macha played it right
| # | YEAR | RUNNERS | EXP_R_OUTS_0 | EXP_R_OUTS_1 | EXP_R_OUTS_2 |
| 1. | 2009 | 000 | 0.52028 | 0.28262 | 0.1048 |
| 2. | 2009 | 003 | 1.2938 | 0.9542 | 0.38462 |
| 3. | 2009 | 020 | 1.13062 | 0.69715 | 0.32262 |
| 4. | 2009 | 023 | 2.00907 | 1.42604 | 0.57994 |
| 5. | 2009 | 100 | 0.89166 | 0.54317 | 0.218 |
| 6. | 2009 | 103 | 1.76796 | 1.16954 | 0.55324 |
| 7. | 2009 | 120 | 1.50136 | 0.92994 | 0.45553 |
| 8. | 2009 | 123 | 2.28799 | 1.59077 | 0.77906 |
The data shows that run expectancy is higher when there are runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs (1.501) compared to runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (1.426). While the spread fluctuates from year to year, the difference is usually between a half run and a full run (see more here).
Now consider the fact that a sacrifice bunt is not always successful. As this insightful and exhaustive article from the Hardball Times notes, sacrifice bunts fail around 25% of the time (yes, the fail rate is lower when pitchers are taken out of the equation, but the article applies the necessary adjustments and reaches the same conclusion).
As the preceding research (in addition to recent works outlining the extent of the importance of On-base Percentage) demonstrates, voluntarily giving up one your 27 outs is NOT an advisable strategy.
As frustrating as it is see the Brewers squander opportunities with runners on base, giving up outs to move runners over (i.e. small ball) will only decrease the team's run expectancy and exacerbate the problem.
Macha played it right
Monday, August 10, 2009
The HNarrative
The HNarrative
By: Sam Hnilicka
After a stretch of baseball played by The Crew which was extremely unbearable to experience many fans are starting to jump ship. Our pitching has been completely obliterated while many of hitters are mired in terrible slumps. Since July 2nd the Brewers have gone 12-18 winning only two series, and only one in the entire month of July. I say do not fear however, being only four games back of the choking Cubs and injury ridden Cards. With nearly 2 months of baseball remaining in front of us there is plenty of time for our Milwaukee club to overtake our division foes and climb atop the National League Central race. One of the most frustrating moments in July was watching the trade deadline go by where The Brewers biggest moves involved a very safe play to sure up second base with a middle of road kind of guy like Felipe Lopez, and adding a reliable and familiar arm in Vargas. Certainly neither move was even close to being as monumental as the CC trade last July, but can you blame Doug Melvin choosing to not mortgage our future so greatly two years in a row?
The most important to remember when judging the Brewers as the stand is that baseball is a game of averages. When you look at players like JJ Hardy, Jason Kendall and, worst of them all, Bill Hall who are performing well below their career numbers I believe they are due for strong finishes to the year. If we begin to see the kind of run production we were expecting from this team it will do wonders to cover up the holes we have with pitching staff, which are far too many due to a combination of injuries and poor offseason management by Doug Melvin. Only adding Braden Looper to a mediocre staff to begin with and providing no depth for spot starts when starters get hurt was an extremely costly oversight to the Brewers overall record this year. Of course guys like Carlos Villanueva and Seth McClung, who were expected to fill that roll, have underachieved a lot, but imagine if Melvin had signed just one more veteran starting pitcher and allowed Parra to mature more in a relieving roll. Our overworked bullpen would probably feel a little less tired and we wouldn’t have had to watch so many gut-wrenching innings of hurlers like Dillard, Burns, Chris Narvenot and Chris Smith.
As I said though, all is not lost. When you reference teams like the Colorado Rockies of 2007 it’s easy to see that if a team gets hot going into September anything is possible. This becomes even more exciting when you look at the track record Ken Macha has had in pulling late season heroics in Oakland. Whether or not his success in Oakland will be repeated in the Brew City has yet to be determined, but I certainly hope to be sitting inside of Miller Park in the middle of October and not for a Billy Joel/Elton John concert.
By: Sam Hnilicka
After a stretch of baseball played by The Crew which was extremely unbearable to experience many fans are starting to jump ship. Our pitching has been completely obliterated while many of hitters are mired in terrible slumps. Since July 2nd the Brewers have gone 12-18 winning only two series, and only one in the entire month of July. I say do not fear however, being only four games back of the choking Cubs and injury ridden Cards. With nearly 2 months of baseball remaining in front of us there is plenty of time for our Milwaukee club to overtake our division foes and climb atop the National League Central race. One of the most frustrating moments in July was watching the trade deadline go by where The Brewers biggest moves involved a very safe play to sure up second base with a middle of road kind of guy like Felipe Lopez, and adding a reliable and familiar arm in Vargas. Certainly neither move was even close to being as monumental as the CC trade last July, but can you blame Doug Melvin choosing to not mortgage our future so greatly two years in a row?
The most important to remember when judging the Brewers as the stand is that baseball is a game of averages. When you look at players like JJ Hardy, Jason Kendall and, worst of them all, Bill Hall who are performing well below their career numbers I believe they are due for strong finishes to the year. If we begin to see the kind of run production we were expecting from this team it will do wonders to cover up the holes we have with pitching staff, which are far too many due to a combination of injuries and poor offseason management by Doug Melvin. Only adding Braden Looper to a mediocre staff to begin with and providing no depth for spot starts when starters get hurt was an extremely costly oversight to the Brewers overall record this year. Of course guys like Carlos Villanueva and Seth McClung, who were expected to fill that roll, have underachieved a lot, but imagine if Melvin had signed just one more veteran starting pitcher and allowed Parra to mature more in a relieving roll. Our overworked bullpen would probably feel a little less tired and we wouldn’t have had to watch so many gut-wrenching innings of hurlers like Dillard, Burns, Chris Narvenot and Chris Smith.
As I said though, all is not lost. When you reference teams like the Colorado Rockies of 2007 it’s easy to see that if a team gets hot going into September anything is possible. This becomes even more exciting when you look at the track record Ken Macha has had in pulling late season heroics in Oakland. Whether or not his success in Oakland will be repeated in the Brew City has yet to be determined, but I certainly hope to be sitting inside of Miller Park in the middle of October and not for a Billy Joel/Elton John concert.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Transcript of the Tuesday Chat with Tom Haudricourt
Maybe you wonder why I post so much from Tom Haudricourt. Maybe you don't. The answer is simple. Haudricourt is the Brewer's beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Therefore, he has the most access to the players, managers and front office. It means he spends around 13 hours a day living Brewers Baseball. He is one of the most qualified guys to talk about the Crew, and whether you like him or not, he is pretty damn good at his job and frankly, I like his style.
So, he answered fan questions yesterday. HERE is a link to the transcript.
So, he answered fan questions yesterday. HERE is a link to the transcript.
Fielder v. Mota
Would you be scared if Prince Fielder came sprinting after you?
Uhhh. Yea. Probably.
Los Angeles Sports (CBS affiliate in LA) and Tom Haudricourt have posted footage of Fielder trying to get into the Dodgers clubhouse after last night's game to talk with Mota.
Check out Haudricourt HERE and
Los Angeles Sports HERE.
Take a look at MJS's Brewer's Blog to read what everyone has to say about Prince's apparent "Bum Rush."
My bet? Former teammates and possibly former friends, I'm sure Prince was furious and wanted an explanation. We all know baseball is baseball and retaliation hits are a part of the game, whether your up 14 or tied in the 9th, none-the-less though, if I'm Prince, I probably want to look at Mota and say, "WTF MAN."
or whatever.
Uhhh. Yea. Probably.
Los Angeles Sports (CBS affiliate in LA) and Tom Haudricourt have posted footage of Fielder trying to get into the Dodgers clubhouse after last night's game to talk with Mota.
Check out Haudricourt HERE and
Los Angeles Sports HERE.
Take a look at MJS's Brewer's Blog to read what everyone has to say about Prince's apparent "Bum Rush."
My bet? Former teammates and possibly former friends, I'm sure Prince was furious and wanted an explanation. We all know baseball is baseball and retaliation hits are a part of the game, whether your up 14 or tied in the 9th, none-the-less though, if I'm Prince, I probably want to look at Mota and say, "WTF MAN."
or whatever.
Tom's Twittering Tweets - Starring An A** Kicking
I was going to start today's posts off with the Grind, but after last night's embarrassment/ass kicking/what the F happened, I thought taking a look at Tom Haudricourt's twitter posts during the game might be a little more interesting.
Apparently, Fielder tried to get over to the Dodgers clubhouse after the game to address Mota drilling him. Should be interesting game Wed.
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I guess Torre felt he had to protect Manny, who was hit by C. Smith. Anyway, there should be some interesting post-game react now.
-
Pretty obvious that Joe Torre had G. Mota drill Fielder as retaliation for Manny being HBP. He had Troncoso warming up with 17-4 lead.
Ramirez cheated in '03. He cheated this year. You have to assume he's a cheater, right? Thus, the previous tweet about testing him.
Ramirez breaks 11-game streak without RBI with HR off Gallardo in 5th. Might be a good idea to drug test him after the game.
Brewers score three against Kuroda in the fifth and are back in the game, trailing, 4-3.
Dodgers scored four in first off Gallardo, who rarely has big hiccups like that, especially early.
-
Apparently, Fielder tried to get over to the Dodgers clubhouse after the game to address Mota drilling him. Should be interesting game Wed.
-
I guess Torre felt he had to protect Manny, who was hit by C. Smith. Anyway, there should be some interesting post-game react now.
-
Pretty obvious that Joe Torre had G. Mota drill Fielder as retaliation for Manny being HBP. He had Troncoso warming up with 17-4 lead.
Ramirez cheated in '03. He cheated this year. You have to assume he's a cheater, right? Thus, the previous tweet about testing him.
Ramirez breaks 11-game streak without RBI with HR off Gallardo in 5th. Might be a good idea to drug test him after the game.
Brewers score three against Kuroda in the fifth and are back in the game, trailing, 4-3.
Dodgers scored four in first off Gallardo, who rarely has big hiccups like that, especially early.
-
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Before the Game Starts Tonight...
Check out what Duk over at Big League Stew wrote about T. Hoff getting the best of ManRam last night. Read it HERE.
A Call to Arms! Well more like for Arms...
No, this post is not about the Brewer's pitching. It probably should be, but it isn't.
This is a call for writers! As stated in the post below this, the next three weeks will be a total revamping for this site. And with it, I want New Writers!
Note: Old Writers, your "jobs" are still secure (Mike, Sam and Shawn).
But here is the deal, if you like to write or study journalism or anything and your a Milwaukee Brewers Fan/Player/Casual Watcher/Lameneter/Slightly engaged viewer/whatever, and think you have something interesting to say about the Crew, whether it be totally erroneous or vitally important, please shoot me and e-mail or some sort of message, and let's figure some shiz out.
Ok?
I need ya,
Nathan Ley
This is a call for writers! As stated in the post below this, the next three weeks will be a total revamping for this site. And with it, I want New Writers!
Note: Old Writers, your "jobs" are still secure (Mike, Sam and Shawn).
But here is the deal, if you like to write or study journalism or anything and your a Milwaukee Brewers Fan/Player/Casual Watcher/Lameneter/Slightly engaged viewer/whatever, and think you have something interesting to say about the Crew, whether it be totally erroneous or vitally important, please shoot me and e-mail or some sort of message, and let's figure some shiz out.
Ok?
I need ya,
Nathan Ley
The Times, They Are A-Changin'
It's been a while. There has been an absence. Of the three or maybe more of you that actually read this blog, perhaps you noticed. Perhaps you didn't.
This blog began as a class assignment for a Sports Journalism class at the University of Iowa. I am proud to say that the content posted here, was given very high marks for it's inclusion of a variety of information from a variety of sources as well as it's creativity in general posts and diversity of topics. It was a large part of the "A" i received in the class.
I would like to continue it, and take it a step further.
For the next three weeks, I will be taking a class on PHP and MySQL in an attempt to turn this into a more legitimate and functioning site with accounts consisting of Administrators, Writers, General Users and Guests. The design will be completely new, and if all goes accordingly, the same and new writers.
So where do we stand now? Our Beloved Brew Crew has fallen upon hard times since the All-Star Break. After entering the break in second place in the NL Central, and only two games back from the Saint Louis Cardinals, the Crew now sit in third place in the division (although technically second due to the tie between the Chicago Cubs and the Cards) and four games back from first. They are 5-5 in their last ten games and have recently dropped series to the Pirates, Braves and Padres, while splitting a four game series with the Washington Nationals.
However, all is not lost! Last night, the Beer Makers hung on to win a 7-6 game against MLB leading Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Sure the Cardinals came up big in getting Matt Holliday while not making any pitching moves themselves, but the Cubs are the Cubs. They choke every year, something Cub faithfuls and baseball afficionados understand the way they understand how to get dressed in the morning. My point being this: There is still time. There is still hope. As fans of a small market team, it can be depressing and embarrassing at times to watch the gut-wrenching actions or inactions of our front office and general managers, but the Brewers have prevailed before, and the division is really still up for grabs.
So I am asking you to give the Crew a few weeks. Watch them and cheer them, and read this blog. My posts will be daily and frequent, and possibly feverish. So please visit and read, and let's either cheer or cry together!
Lates,
Nathan Ley
This blog began as a class assignment for a Sports Journalism class at the University of Iowa. I am proud to say that the content posted here, was given very high marks for it's inclusion of a variety of information from a variety of sources as well as it's creativity in general posts and diversity of topics. It was a large part of the "A" i received in the class.
I would like to continue it, and take it a step further.
For the next three weeks, I will be taking a class on PHP and MySQL in an attempt to turn this into a more legitimate and functioning site with accounts consisting of Administrators, Writers, General Users and Guests. The design will be completely new, and if all goes accordingly, the same and new writers.
So where do we stand now? Our Beloved Brew Crew has fallen upon hard times since the All-Star Break. After entering the break in second place in the NL Central, and only two games back from the Saint Louis Cardinals, the Crew now sit in third place in the division (although technically second due to the tie between the Chicago Cubs and the Cards) and four games back from first. They are 5-5 in their last ten games and have recently dropped series to the Pirates, Braves and Padres, while splitting a four game series with the Washington Nationals.
However, all is not lost! Last night, the Beer Makers hung on to win a 7-6 game against MLB leading Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Sure the Cardinals came up big in getting Matt Holliday while not making any pitching moves themselves, but the Cubs are the Cubs. They choke every year, something Cub faithfuls and baseball afficionados understand the way they understand how to get dressed in the morning. My point being this: There is still time. There is still hope. As fans of a small market team, it can be depressing and embarrassing at times to watch the gut-wrenching actions or inactions of our front office and general managers, but the Brewers have prevailed before, and the division is really still up for grabs.
So I am asking you to give the Crew a few weeks. Watch them and cheer them, and read this blog. My posts will be daily and frequent, and possibly feverish. So please visit and read, and let's either cheer or cry together!
Lates,
Nathan Ley
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